Rumble in the Jungle (NCAA Finals)

The NCAA Basketball Finals will finally commence at the Araneta Coliseum tomorrow, in what has been a historic and looong 85th Season. This matchup, which could also be dubbed as the "Battle of the Saints", will feature the top seeded and 3-time defending champions, San Beda Red Lions versus the upstart and second seeded San Sebastian Golden Stags. On the sidelines, Red Lion coach Frankie Lim is seeking to stretch his championship run to 3; while rookie coach Ato Agustin is seeking to translate his success on the basketball court through his mentorship of the Stags. Interestingly, this is also a grudge match of the pre-season Nike Summer League Finals, which the Red Lions handily won. 

This early I will go out on a limb and predict that, despite so many other possible factors, the result of this series will depend on the gimpy knees of Red Lion Borgie Hermida. Let me explain.



The San Sebastian Stags have been through a historic run in Season 85, with their 15 game winning streak spanning a stretch of almost 3 months. That streak was finally snapped by the Letran Knights of Louie Alas during their second round meeting, and things have been in free fall for the Stags, managing just a 2-3 win loss record, since then. 


Much of the credit had been given to the physical play employed by the Knights, as the key to solving the San Sebastian puzzle. However, it is no coincidence that the Knights also utilize what may be the meanest full-court press in the league. I believe the press, more than the physicality, exposed the chink in the Stags' armor: the point guard position.   


Don't get me wrong, I think Pamboy Raymundo is an OK pointguard. But that's just it, when compared to teammates like Jimbo Aquino, Calvin Abueva and Ian Sangalang, he's just an ordinary guy. While the above-mentioned names can produce almost superhuman numbers (at least by NCAA standards) from their respective positions, Raymundo and his backups (Maconocido, Del Rio, and Gatchalian) become the Stags equivalent of an Achilles heel. And this is something which the guards of Letran (Kevin Alas, Kirk Del Rosario and Reymar Gutilban) took advantage of to the hilt, enroute to getting that victory. 


By stalling the Stags offensive through their PG's, it gives less time for Aquino et, al. to operate with the ball and initiate their lethal offensive attack. This is also when the physicality of the opposing team can have maximum effect. I think that it is no coincidence either that the 2 victories of San Beda over San Sebastian featured the resurgence of their point guard Hermida. Which leads me to the Red Lions.


The San Beda Red Lions are like the NCAA equivalent of the New York Yankees in baseball, or Real Madrid in football (or San Miguel in the PBA, hehe). They are just loaded at every position, that some of their third stringers could start for some of the lower-tier teams. But just like any superstar-laden team, they need a glue-guy to make things work. Ogie Menor ably manned this spot the past couple of years, but with his departure to the pro ranks, the mantle of responsibility fell on Hermida. Unfortunately, as a result of the ACL injury he suffered several months back, the 85th Season has been an uphill climb for the Red Lion playmaker. In fact, during their first round meeting with the Stags, Hermida played limited minutes. Guess who won that one?


So it boils down to this: if Hermida comes into the series playing like how he did during their last two meetings, then you can chalk championship number 4 for San Beda. However, if Hermida plays below par and fails to check his counterparts from San Sebastian, then we may be treated to the first Stag Party of Ato Agustin.